Beating the Odds from 35 Yards: The 300-Shot Experiment

This is Part 2 of my 35-yard hole-in-one experiment at Belle Isle Golf Detroit.

In Video 1, I explained the method.

The simple version is this: I repeat the same 35-yard par-3 shot 100 times, using a clear mental image of the ball already being in the hole, then reacting to that image with a swing.


For Part 2, I scaled it to 300 attempts across three different holes, all from 35 yards at 580 feet elevation. Same distance. Different slopes. Different wind. Real pin locations.

A statistician once told me a pro’s odds of holing out from 20 yards in fairway conditions are about 1 in 105 attempts (under 1%). From 35 yards with these variables, the odds should be worse.

CONDITIONS (100 shots each):

September 26, 2023 – 4th Hole
- Under an overhanging tree, over a bunker
- Green slope: 7.51%
- Temp: 66–68°F
- Wind: ESE tailwind ~10 mph, gusts to 20 mph

October 3, 2023 – 5th Hole
- Pin: 19 yards on, 5 yards from the left
- Green slope: 0.7%
- Temp: 70–83°F
- Wind: S 1–5 mph, gusts 6–9 mph
- Note: Greenside camera stopped recording before two makes, so only tee reactions were captured

September 27, 2023 – 3rd Hole
- Green slope: 2.75%
- Temp: 63–66°F
- Cloudy
- Wind: ESE tailwind 10–11 mph, gusts 20–21 mph

This video shows the full Part 2 experiment and how it played out.


Short follow-ups after this:

Reel 1: Beating the Odds…Again?
Reel 2: 5 Hole-In-Ones in 300 Attempts (35 Yards)